🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."